A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
